Gold could be vulnerable to falls today if the US CPI print comes in above market expectations. The core m/m reading is expected to be +0.3%. The core y/y reading is expected to be 4.2%. If the reading is above +0.4% for the m/m and +4.6% expect gold to weaken on USD strength in expectations of a hawkish Fed.

Over the last 10 years, gold has fallen in value from September 14 – November 26 a total of 9 times. The average loss has been -4.52% and the biggest fall was in 2016 with a -10.20% drop. The largest gain was in 2018 with a modest +1.77% rise.

Major Trade Risks: If the CPI print surprises to the downside then expect gold to gain sharply and invalidate this outlook.