Fundamentally, things look strong for gold. The Fed are patient and don’t look like raising rates until at least the middle of next year. This has caused bond yields to pull back as investors were positioning for a faster Fed heading into the last FOMC. Inflation remains pressured to the upside and this is keeping real yields lower which also helps gold. The USD is not surging higher and if it starts moving lower then that should be a big help for gold. Gold also has some strong seasonals between now and February of next year.

Over the last 25 years, gold has risen 18 times between November 08 and February 28. The average gain has been +3.89%. The largest gain was +21.48%. The largest loss was -8.57%. There is never any guarantee that this seasonal pattern will repeat again this year. However, it is very helpful to notice when these strong seasonal patterns are in place.

Major Trade Risks: The main risk to this seasonal pattern would be if there is some very hawkish monetary policy reason for further USD gains at the next FOMC policy meeting in December.