The CHF has reasons for strength. The SNB has dropped its ‘highly valued’ label from the CHF from its June meeting. The returning appeal of traditional safe havens suit flows into the CHF. The CHF is seen as an inflation hedge and the SNB has taken a hawkish tilt and looks set to bring interest rates positive in its September meeting.
The GBP has reasons for weakness. The BoE brought forward recession projections from 2023 to 2022 Q4 and extended those projections for 5 quarters of recession. The UK Manufacturing PMI printed below minimum expectations in a firm contractionary territory with a print of 46. The minim expected was 47.9.
This means that for the coming week it is reasonable to expect the GBPCHF to find sellers on any rallies higher.
Major Trade Risks: The major risk here is if there is a shift in either the monetary policy outlook from either the BoE or the SNB or any significant tier 1 data for either the GBP or the CHF.