US oil has become an interesting political battlefield between OPEC and the US. After the US asked OPEC to increase production, and OPEC refused, the US has been threatening to release some of its emergency oil reserves. The US energy department announced yesterday that a loan of oil from SPR (their emergency reserves) will be coordinated with other countries. So, does this mean that oil prices will keep falling now into December?

Here is the seasonal pattern for US oil from November 24 to December 19 for the last 15 years. US oil has had some years where oil has fallen quite sharply like in 2008, 2014, & 2015. The largest fall was -25.09% in the global financial crisis of 2008. However, will US oil sell-off again now the US is releasing some emergency oil reserves?

Major Trade Risks: The main risk to this seasonal pattern would be if OPEC retaliates by reducing their production to compensate for the US emergency reserve release.

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