The USD is vulnerable to a time of weakness around the end of the year. This is due to US tax balancing that regularly sees USD flows out of US companies into daughter companies. So, the USD does tend to be very weak heading into year-end. As a result of this dollar weakness, the euro often sees strength. Sometimes the EURUSD is called the anti-dollar index for this reason. Whatever the USD does, the EURUSD pair does the opposite.
Over the last 22 years, the EURUSD has risen 16 times. The largest fall has been in 2011 with a -1.01% fall. The percentage of winning trades has been 72.73%. Will the EURUSD show strength again this year between December 24 and December 31?
Major Trade Risks: The main risk to this seasonal pattern would be strong risk-off trading that also results in USD strength or hawkish Fed re-pricing after the latest dot plot.
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