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ECB’s hawkish shift to send the EURUSD higher?

ECB’s hawkish shift to send the EURUSD higher?

ECB’s hawkish shift to send the EURUSD higher?

in Seasonal Insights

The ECB has seen a series of hawkish comments from ECB board members over the last couple of weeks.

It seems that Christine Lagarde now has the memo as on Monday this week she outlined that the ECB will be hiking by 25 bps in July and September. This sent the EUR racing higher. Furthermore, the USD may be close to peak bullishness and the CORE PCE data print on Friday could send the USD lower and launch the EURUSD even higher into month-end. The German bund and the US bond yield spread is also moving higher indicating that the EURUSD pair has more upside potential.

The seasonals also favour more EURUSD upside

Over the last 10 years, the EURUSD pair has only lost value once between May 27 and June 06. The largest gain was 1.56% in 2015. Are there more gains to come again this year on expectations of ECB rate hikes ahead?

Major Trade Risks:

  • Any significant news that changes the monetary policy outlook for the ECB or the Fed.
  • Any strong risk-off trading that results in USD strength.

HYCM clients can access the Seasonax product in order to analyse over 25,000 currency pairs, indices, commodities, as well as individual stocks. Please contact your account manager for a free trial. Certain products & services mentioned herein may or may not be available to all clients depending on which HYCM Capital Markets Group entity their trading account(s) adheres to.


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Legal Forms & Documents

Risk Warnings

Cookies Policy

Disclaimer: Any opinions made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinions of HYCM. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice. This material is considered a marketing communication and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice or an investment recommendation or, an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments. HYCM makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied by an employee of HYCM, a third party or otherwise. Past performance is not an indication of possible future performance. Without the approval of HYCM, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.

Legal Information: HYCM is the trading name of Henyep Capital Markets (UK) Limited, HYCM (Europe) Ltd, HYCM Limited and Henyep Capital Markets (DIFC) Limited for which the Henyep Capital Markets group is holding company and its assets are a controlling equity interest in them.

* Cryptocurrencies are not available for trading under HYCM (Europe) Limited and Henyep Capital Markets (UK) Limited (retail clients only).

*Any opinions made in this material are personal to the author and do not reflect the opinions of HYCM. This material is considered a marketing communication and should not be construed as containing investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee of or prediction of future performance. HYCM does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation. HYCM makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or other information supplied by an employee of HYCM, a third party or otherwise.

Copyright © 2023 HYCM