Today the ECB meets during the London session and a positive surprise from the ECB could potentially shift the EUR higher. However, the best chance of EUR upside would likely come from a Russian/Ukraine peace agreement. Although the main point is that there is a bias towards EURUSD strength from a seasonal perspective. So, if that seasonal bias is matched by a fundamental bias that could result in EURUSD gains into the year end.

Over the last 22 years, the EURUSD has risen 15 times and lost value 7 times between Dec 18 and Dec 30. So, if there are fundamental reasons for EURUSD strength coming up it is worth remembering this seasonal pattern.

Major Trade Risks: The biggest risk here is if there are reasons for USD strength and EUR weakness into year end that can contradict this seasonal pattern.

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