In 2013, when the Fed announced bond tapering, stocks fell very sharply. However, the S&P500 for example was still able to finish the year rising around 30%! Some analysts think that European shares offer better value than US stocks, so are the Dax’s strong seasonals worth considering?
Over the last 10 years, the DAX has risen 80% of the time between September 01 and December 01 with an average return of +5.17%. The largest gain was in 2013 with a 14.05% gain. The largest loss was in 2018 where the DAX registered a -7.14% loss.
Major Trade Risks: Any very fast US economic recovery could result in more aggressive action by the Fed making conditions even harder for stocks.