According to Goldman Sachs, they see a large potential for commodities to outperform again this year. Last year only cryptocurrencies outperformed commodities and Goldman Sachs to significant market imbalances to drive commodity prices again. Whether it is constant demand or supply not being provided commodities have reasons to rally. Copper is one commodity that could be due for some gains. The present and expected further easing in China’s monetary policy should be supportive for growth and therefore copper demand. Let’s take a look at the seasonal demand for copper in February.
From Feb 01 – Feb 24 Copper has gained 11 times in the last 15 years. The average return has been an impressive 4.20%. Last year saw gains of over 20%! Will that be repeated again this year?
Major Trade Risks:
- The main risk to this seasonal pattern is if China reverses its easy monetary policy.
- Another key risk will be the specific copper supply and demand issues.