Copper has been rangebound for some time now on the daily chart caught between short copper supply and global risk-off sentiment. There needs to be a strong fundamental shift for copper traders to have a clear conviction on the near term direction. It is interesting that copper has some weak seasonals right now, so will we see some near term copper weakness?

Copper is heading towards a period of seasonal weakness now from March 02 through to March 10. Over the last 25 years, copper has fallen in 16 of those years between March 02 -March 10. The average return is -1.12 % and the maximum loss has been-6.68%. Will this mean that coppers re-tests the bottom of its recent range?

Major Trade Risks:

  • The main risk here is supply shortages for copper support prices.
  • The other key risk is that pro-growth China policies support the demand for copper and that supports copper prices.
  • Finally, any positive resolution of the Russia/Ukraine crisis can lift copper prices.