Gold prices have been rising since the low US CPI print last week. The prospect of lower inflation increased the chances of the Fed holding rates for September’s meeting (July’s meeting has a 25bps hike priced in) and that has sent the USD lower alongside yields. Both of these events have supported gold.

So, if lower inflation expectations persist then can gold keep gaining into August? Historically, the seasonals are strong for gold. From July 18 through to August 27, gold prices have gained 70% of the time over the last 10 years with an average return of 3.17%. Will gold prices gain again this year? Can the triple top break?

Major Trade Risks: The main risk here would be if higher inflation prints are out of the US and a more hawkish Fed policy.

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