Inflation data is a major focus for the Reserve Bank of Australia. A headline that prints below 5.8% and a trimmed mean below 5.9% will surprise markets and reassure the RBA that inflation is moving lower and would give the RBA confidence to remain on hold for rates. That should result in an AUD downside if the print comes in lower than expected.
Also, note that the AUDUSD has a pronounced period of weakness ahead from a seasonal perspective. Over the last 15 years, the AUDUSD has fallen nearly 90% of the time for an average fall of 1.80%. The largest fall was in 2008 during the Global Financial Crisis for a drop of over 9%.
Major Trade Risks: The main risk here would be a dovish Fed policy meeting where they say that they have finished hiking rates. The USD is a key risk to this outlook to be aware of.
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