Whether the US has a hard, soft, or even no landing is a matter of debate. However, many analysts are expecting a slowdown in the US economy, and rising interest rates mean higher charges for customers who have credit.
American Express has a reputation for having a super prime customer base, so even if the US does fall into a recession most consumers will still make minimum credit card payments. In the meantime, the rising interest rate costs have the potential to generate more revenue for credit card companies and defaults are still at a relatively low level. So, does this make American Express a good share to buy?
The seasonals are certainly strong. Over the last 10 years, American Express shares have gained an average of 7.57% and gained 90% of the time.
Major Trade Risks: The major trade risk here is that the US economy has a hard landing which would likely slow the use of Credit Cards and increase the risk of defaults.
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